NepaliSoch — Data-Driven Nepal Election Analysis

Leading

NC (Nepali Congress)

89 seats

Hung Parliament

simulator.gathabandan

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Nepal Constituency Map

165 constituencies over 77 districts

Black areas are protected

FPTP Vote Share

Affects 165 constituency seats

NCNepali Congress

23.19%FPTP: 57

UMLCPN-UML

30.83%FPTP: 44

MaoistCPN-Maoist Centre

9.37%FPTP: 18

RSPRastriya Swatantra Party

7.77%FPTP: 7

RPPRastriya Prajatantra Party

5.24%FPTP: 7

JSPNJanata Samajbadi Party

3.62%FPTP: 7

USCPN (Unified Socialist)

4.16%FPTP: 10

JPJanamat Party

2.79%FPTP: 1

LSPLoktantrik Samajbadi Party

1.62%FPTP: 4

NUPNagarik Unmukti Party

1.64%FPTP: 3

IndIndependent

0.00%FPTP: 5

NMKPNepal Majdoor Kisan Party

0.00%FPTP: 1

JMRastriya Janamorcha

0.00%FPTP: 1

OthersOthers

5.57%FPTP: 0

Total96%

PR Vote Share

Affects 110 proportional seats (3% threshold)

NCNepali Congress

25.71%PR: 32

UMLCPN-UML

26.95%PR: 34

MaoistCPN-Maoist Centre

11.13%PR: 14

RSPRastriya Swatantra Party

10.70%PR: 13

RPPRastriya Prajatantra Party

5.58%PR: 7

JSPNJanata Samajbadi Party

3.99%PR: 5

USCPN (Unified Socialist)

2.83%PR: 0

JPJanamat Party

3.74%PR: 5

LSPLoktantrik Samajbadi Party

1.58%PR: 0

NUPNagarik Unmukti Party

2.57%PR: 0

IndIndependent

0.00%PR: 0

NMKPNepal Majdoor Kisan Party

0.00%PR: 0

JMRastriya Janamorcha

0.00%PR: 0

OthersOthers

5.57%PR: 0

Total100%

Advanced Controls

Simulation Adjustments

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Select which party to apply the starting point adjustment to. The adjustment will set the selected party's FPTP slider to match their PR vote share.

Starting Point Mode

When enabled, sets the selected party's FPTP slider to match their PR vote share (assumes they run in all seats).

Switching Matrix

Voter flow table

Share moved from base vote

UML ➜ RSP(of UML voters)

NC ➜ RSP(of NC voters)

Maoist ➜ RSP(of Maoist voters)

RPP ➜ RSP(of RPP voters)

JSP ➜ RSP(of JSP voters)

Others ➜ RSP(of Others voters)

Maoist ➜ NC(of Maoist voters)

NC ➜ UML(of NC voters)

UML ➜ NC(of UML voters)

RPP ➜ NC(of RPP voters)

Apply updates sliders with voter flow. Values persist after applying.

Path to Majority

275 seats total · 138 needed to govern

Hung parliament

Leading

NC (Nepali Congress)

Seat gap

to reach 138

Lead

vs UML (CPN-UML)

Coalitions

105

viable paths

Top parties

NC (Nepali Congress)89UML (CPN-UML)78Maoist (CPN-Maoist Centre)32

Top coalition paths

NCUML

167

NCMaoistRSP

141

NCUMLJP

173

PR Allocation

110 / 110 seats

Modified Sainte-Laguë (0.7,1.5,2.5...) • 3% threshold (failed votes redistributed)

CPN-UML: 34

Nepali Congress: 32

CPN-Maoist Centre: 14

Rastriya Swatantra Party: 13

Rastriya Prajatantra Party: 7

Janata Samajbadi Party: 5

Janamat Party: 5

NC (Nepali Congress)

25.71% votes32

UML (CPN-UML)

26.95% votes34

Maoist (CPN-Maoist Centre)

11.13% votes14

RSP (Rastriya Swatantra Party)

10.70% votes13

RPP (Rastriya Prajatantra Party)

5.58% votes7

JSPN (Janata Samajbadi Party)

3.99% votes5

US (CPN (Unified Socialist))(below 3%)

2.83% votes0

JP (Janamat Party)

3.74% votes5

LSP (Loktantrik Samajbadi Party)(below 3%)

1.58% votes0

NUP (Nagarik Unmukti Party)(below 3%)

2.57% votes0

Ind (Independent)(below 3%)

0.00% votes0

NMKP (Nepal Majdoor Kisan Party)(below 3%)

0.00% votes0

JM (Rastriya Janamorcha)(below 3%)

0.00% votes0

Others (Others)(below 3%)

0.00% votes0

Parties below 3% threshold receive 0 PR seats

Coalition Builder

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Combined seats

Across FPTP + PR

To majority

138

Seats to reach 138

FPTP vs PR

0 / 0

Constituency / List seats

0138 needed275

Constituencies

Results Summary

Compared to 2022 actual results

NC (Nepali Congress)

FPTP: 57PR: 32

P5–P95: 89–89Pr(138+): 0%

UML (CPN-UML)

FPTP: 44PR: 34

P5–P95: 78–78Pr(138+): 0%

Maoist (CPN-Maoist Centre)

FPTP: 18PR: 14

P5–P95: 32–32Pr(138+): 0%

RSP (Rastriya Swatantra Party)

FPTP: 7PR: 13

P5–P95: 20–20Pr(138+): 0%

RPP (Rastriya Prajatantra Party)

FPTP: 7PR: 7

P5–P95: 14–14Pr(138+): 0%

JSPN (Janata Samajbadi Party)

FPTP: 7PR: 5

P5–P95: 12–12Pr(138+): 0%

US (CPN (Unified Socialist))

FPTP: 10PR: 0

P5–P95: 10–10Pr(138+): 0%

JP (Janamat Party)

FPTP: 1PR: 5

P5–P95: 6–6Pr(138+): 0%

LSP (Loktantrik Samajbadi Party)

FPTP: 4PR: 0

P5–P95: 4–4Pr(138+): 0%

NUP (Nagarik Unmukti Party)

FPTP: 3PR: 0

P5–P95: 3–3Pr(138+): 0%

Ind (Independent)

FPTP: 5PR: 0

P5–P95: 5–5Pr(138+): 0%

NMKP (Nepal Majdoor Kisan Party)

FPTP: 1PR: 0

P5–P95: 1–1Pr(138+): 0%

JM (Rastriya Janamorcha)

FPTP: 1PR: 0

P5–P95: 1–1Pr(138+): 0%

Others (Others)

FPTP: 0PR: 0

P5–P95: 0–0Pr(138+): 0%

Total Seats275

FPTP + PR165 + 110

Nepal Constituency Map

FPTP Vote Share

PR Vote Share

Simulation Adjustments

Voter flow table

PR Allocation

Pick a bloc, see their path

Constituencies

Results Summary

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