About Nepal Votes

Bringing data-driven analysis and journalism to Nepal elections

Our Mission

Nepal Votes's mission is to bring transparency, analysis, and insight to Nepal politics. We believe that data-driven journalism can help citizens make informed decisions and hold leaders accountable.

We are independent, non-partisan, and transparent in our analysis. All our sources and methodologies are documented and available for review.

What We Do

Election Analysis

In-depth analysis of Nepal's electoral system, parties, and coalitions

Polling Aggregation

Aggregation and analysis of public opinion polls

Forecasts & Models

Statistical models and election projections

Demographics Research

Analysis of electoral constituencies and district demographics

Methodology

FPTP (First-Past-The-Post) Seats

FPTP seats are calculated using Nepal's traditional winner-takes-all system. In each constituency, the candidate with the highest vote share wins the seat.

  • 165 constituencies across 7 provinces
  • 1 winner per constituency
  • Instant results based on vote share

PR (Proportional Representation) Seats

PR seats are calculated using the Sainte-Laguë method. Parties receive seats proportional to their national vote share.

  • 110 PR seats total
  • 3% vote threshold to qualify
  • Sainte-Laguë method applied

Bayesian Simulation Model

Our simulation uses a Bayesian approach that incorporates prior knowledge with new information. The model updates beliefs based on evidence from polls, by-elections, and coalition dynamics.

  • 2022 election baseline as prior
  • By-election signals incorporated
  • Party switching matrix modeling

Constituency Overrides

Users can manually override any constituency's winner. This feature allows modeling local factors, swing regions, or incumbency effects not captured in national data.

  • Click any constituency to override
  • Set winner party and vote share
  • Overrides automatically saved

Alliance Transfer Efficiency

Alliances model vote transfer between two parties. Transfer efficiency determines what percentage of votes are transferred, accounting for voter loyalty and party compatibility.

  • Handicap percentage configurable
  • Party compatibility score calculated
  • Based on ideological dimensions

Data Sources

Election Commission of Nepal

Official data from Nepal's electoral authority.

  • 2022 Federal Election results
  • Details for 165 constituencies
  • Voter rolls and demographics
  • Source: result.election.gov.np

National Statistics Office

Official demographics from Nepal's 2021 census.

  • Population and gender distribution
  • Age groups and demographics
  • Urban-rural distribution
  • Source: cbs.gov.np

Media Organizations

News and analysis from Nepal's leading media organizations.

  • Kantipur Publications
  • Republica Media
  • The Kathmandu Post
  • Analysis and news articles

Academic & Research Sources

Academic sources studying Nepali politics and elections.

  • PR signal research papers
  • Electoral system comparative studies
  • Ideology measurement research

Open Source: All our code, calculations, and data are available on GitHub. You can review, contribute, and improve our work.

Future Roadmap

We are continuously working to improve Nepal Votes and add more features. Here are our planned developments:

Real-time Polling Integration

Automatically aggregate public polls and integrate them into the simulation as Bayesian priors.

Historical Comparisons

Compare 2017 and 2022 elections, analyze trends, and visualize time-series data across multiple cycles.

Advanced Demographic Cross-Tabs

Voter profiles and party support by age, gender, education, and income level across constituencies.

Mobile App Development

Native apps for iOS and Android with offline mode and push notifications for updates.

Live Election Night Coverage

Real-time results, updates, and analysis streamed live on election day with interactive dashboards.

District-Level Forecasts

Projected results for each district with historical trends and demographic analysis.

Contributions Welcome: Have ideas for our roadmap? Contact us or contribute on GitHub. We welcome feedback and collaboration.

Contact

Have questions, feedback, or suggestions? We'd love to hear from you:

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