Bringing data-driven analysis and journalism to Nepal elections
Nepal Votes's mission is to bring transparency, analysis, and insight to Nepal politics. We believe that data-driven journalism can help citizens make informed decisions and hold leaders accountable.
We are independent, non-partisan, and transparent in our analysis. All our sources and methodologies are documented and available for review.
In-depth analysis of Nepal's electoral system, parties, and coalitions
Aggregation and analysis of public opinion polls
Statistical models and election projections
Analysis of electoral constituencies and district demographics
FPTP seats are calculated using Nepal's traditional winner-takes-all system. In each constituency, the candidate with the highest vote share wins the seat.
PR seats are calculated using the Sainte-Laguë method. Parties receive seats proportional to their national vote share.
Our simulation uses a Bayesian approach that incorporates prior knowledge with new information. The model updates beliefs based on evidence from polls, by-elections, and coalition dynamics.
Users can manually override any constituency's winner. This feature allows modeling local factors, swing regions, or incumbency effects not captured in national data.
Alliances model vote transfer between two parties. Transfer efficiency determines what percentage of votes are transferred, accounting for voter loyalty and party compatibility.
Official data from Nepal's electoral authority.
Official demographics from Nepal's 2021 census.
News and analysis from Nepal's leading media organizations.
Academic sources studying Nepali politics and elections.
Open Source: All our code, calculations, and data are available on GitHub. You can review, contribute, and improve our work.
We are continuously working to improve Nepal Votes and add more features. Here are our planned developments:
Automatically aggregate public polls and integrate them into the simulation as Bayesian priors.
Compare 2017 and 2022 elections, analyze trends, and visualize time-series data across multiple cycles.
Voter profiles and party support by age, gender, education, and income level across constituencies.
Native apps for iOS and Android with offline mode and push notifications for updates.
Real-time results, updates, and analysis streamed live on election day with interactive dashboards.
Projected results for each district with historical trends and demographic analysis.
Contributions Welcome: Have ideas for our roadmap? Contact us or contribute on GitHub. We welcome feedback and collaboration.
Have questions, feedback, or suggestions? We'd love to hear from you:
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